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Discussion: Teams on FIRE WOW!!

Posted Discussion
Aug. 23, 2022
65phantom22
16 posts
Teams on FIRE WOW!!
A couple of teams I see are hot hot hot!!

Peaking at the right time or a little too early?

Damage a 50 AAA team out of Nevada has won three tournaments in a row including Western Nationals and the Rocky Mountain Championships.

LAF a 55 major team out of California has done even better, winning four tournaments in a row including Western Nationals and the Southwest Championships.

Can anyone say TRIPLE CROWN!!
Aug. 23, 2022
Scott Harder
Men's 55
30 posts
#movethemup
Aug. 24, 2022
65phantom22
16 posts
You would think #movethemup could be an option. I'm sure the system has flagged them and an internal review has taken place or is in the process.

Not sure if there is a deadline on moving teams up before Worlds??
Aug. 24, 2022
softball4b
Men's 70
1188 posts
SSUSA conducts an extensive process on moving teams up and down. More power to the team that gets hot at the right time. On the other side of the coin peaking too early is not beneficial to teams in general. It is not how you start it is how you finish.
Aug. 24, 2022
bond_171513
Men's 55
77 posts
Remember - barring an extreme circumstance, SSUSA only re-rates in June & December, plus the auto-bumps after Worlds. So, if a team is not bumped BEFORE Western/Eastern Nationals, then they won't get bumped until after Worlds. So winning Westerns and Rocky Mountain won't get you bumped for 2022, but certainly both these teams are destined to get bumped up AFTER - probably regardless of how they do at Worlds.
Aug. 24, 2022
DaveDowell
Men's 70
3977 posts
Mike and bond_171513 ... I always look forward to working as a Field Director at the World's ... Where else can a simpleton like me get to spend a few weeks in the company of a couple thousand National Softball Ratings Experts??? [grins] ... Good luck all! ...
Aug. 25, 2022
Arbo
Men's 55
6 posts
They can and will move a team after Eastern/Western Nationals.
Aug. 26, 2022
65phantom22
16 posts
Arbo, I think they would have to have just cause... what that is EXACTLY nobody really knows...winning streaks....winning margins....time of the year....??
Aug. 26, 2022
TimMcElroy
865 posts
65phantom22- SSUSA could bump six teams and somebody would come back saying that they should have bumped Bob's Bananas and Charlie's Cars too. The next guy would say that 2 of the 6 should have been left at their original rating.

SSUSA staffers have 100+ years of rating teams. There's a method to the madness.
Aug. 26, 2022
TimMcElroy
865 posts
should have said- "SSUSA staffers have 100+ years of experience rating teams."
Aug. 26, 2022
65phantom22
16 posts
I love a good discussion, I'm going to do a little research on the two above mentioned teams....curious to see if they are hot at the right time or been dominating for most of the year??
Aug. 27, 2022
Omar Khayyam
1355 posts
It is certainly a tough call. The 80s bracket in the Western Nationals this year had a team that many of the players on other teams recognized as a Major team, yet it was playing in the AAA bracket. Turns out they were rerated down a notch the month before! A solid team—sluggers throughout the lineup, good fielding, decent runners all (not so common when you get past 75s). Well, the team rolled through the seeding and the bracket without a defeat! Only one team gave them much of a battle. They won the Westerns 80 AAA undefeated—should they be boosted back to Major? or was the downgrade not the right choice? In any event, they likely will be at the Worlds playing again against AAA. Good luck to any team that tries to beat them.
Aug. 28, 2022
65phantom22
16 posts
Grant it, I might have missed a tournament here or there, but I think I have a good case study for each team.

Damage, a 50 AAA team out of Nevada has an Overall record of 26-15.  They have done pretty bad in some tournaments but have been on a roll recently of winning tournaments.  1st in Western Nationals and 1st at the Rocky Mountains which was a little affected by the weather.  Their average margin of victory in their last three tournaments is under 3 runs.

LAF -  a 55 Major team out of California has an Overall record of 43-6.  The worst they have done in a tournament this year is 3rd place.  Reeling off five 1st place finishes in a row including the Southwest Championships and the Western National Championships.  Their average margin of victory in their last three tournaments is over 7 runs.

My personal opinion is Damage is HOT at the right moment and LAF should get a bump since they have been HOT from the beginning.

Unfortunately, I don't have 100 years of experience,  but I do have two cents and that's my two cents worth.
Aug. 29, 2022
Scott Harder
Men's 55
30 posts
65phantom22, this is a great analysis of the two teams and I appreciate the insight. My comment was tongue in cheek because anytime someone does good, the people they beat tend to make invalid claims...they are playing down, using shaved bats, cheating some how etc. Everyone wants a chance to win...This senior stuff is so fragmented you can sometimes win tournaments without even playing anyone. Either way, it's all fun and I will continue to play as long as there are 9 other people willing to take the field with me.
Aug. 29, 2022
DaveDowell
Men's 70
3977 posts
65phantom22 ... Are you auditioning for a spot on the SSUSA National Ratings Committee? ... This is hilarious, you calling attention to teams who probably aren't interested in someone cutting the tall grass that keeps them somewhat concealed! ... Keep up the interesting commentary!
Aug. 29, 2022
65phantom22
16 posts
Thanks Scott Harder, just curious how everything works and thought I would pick a couple of teams that won Western Nationals and see how they have been doing throughout the year.  Bumping up is always a delicate matter and I'm sure never agreed to by everyone 100%.

Dave D. was gracious enough to point me to the guidelines and procedures in a previous post and these three things stood out to me.

1.  SSUSA does an internal review of all teams based on all results of games played in SSUSA. The SSUSA database program flags teams that win or lose by an average of five (or more) runs per game for further review.

2.  SSUSA reserves the right to change a team at any time if it becomes clear the team is too strong or too weak for its current division.

3.  Over three (3) tournaments, is the team beating or losing to its opponents in the same age and skill level by an average of five (5) runs or more?

Damage is barely beating their opponents by a run here, a run there and the occasional bigger spread. For example, their Western National games were all decided by 5 runs or less. 
 
On the other hand, LAF's game results are almost the exact opposite, they will squeak by occasionally,  but for the most part they beat their opponents by double figures as four of their wins at Western Nationals were by 12 runs or more.

To the naked eye, one is a BUMP and the other one is not.  But I don't have 100 years of experience doing this and I don't have all the resources to check into the teams further.  Just a simpletons thoughts and observations of this wonderful game of softball.  Maybe I should look at the Eastern Nationals winners next?
Aug. 30, 2022
TimMcElroy
865 posts
Aug 17, Aug 18, Aug 21, Aug 23, Aug 24, Aug 26, Aug 28, Aug 29,

^^^ All, or some part of 8 days have been burned on this. You can do all the research in the world, but here's the reality. The World Championships are right around the corner. The number of runs LAF (or any team for that matter) scored in a previous tournament won't help your team or theirs in Las Vegas.

My opinion- Spending 8 days focused on your own team would be a better use of time.


Aug. 30, 2022
DaveDowell
Men's 70
3977 posts
Hey Tim ... Your post reminds me of a similar comment I "borrowed" years ago from a wise Director and use from time to time: "..If that guy would spend, say, just 10% as much time worrying about his own team as he does other teams, he'd have a better ball club.." ...
Sept. 1, 2022
Scott Harder
Men's 55
30 posts
We play softball on the weekends and talk about softball during the week, what's the harm and why have a message board if you can't talk about softball? It's great that I've got some intel on the team we are about to play, thanks 65phantom22!
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